2005年国际金融市场回顾与2006年展望

2005年的国际金融市场走势跌宕起伏,股票市场表现不一,债券市场基本上是区间波动走势,外汇市场美元一枝独秀,石油价格冲高回落而黄金的表现也引人注目。决定市场走势的因素是美国经济表现稳健,欧、日经济相形见绌,同时美国利率持续上升。2006年受房地产市场降温的影响,美国经济可能温和放缓,利率很快见顶,将对金融市场产生重大影响,总体而言风险加大。     

Embedded industrial production systems: Lessons from waste management in zinc production

To meet the sustainability challenge private companies must implement corporate strategies and adopt novel technologies. The technical and social embeddedness of industrial production systems, however, complicates these systems' transition towards sustainability. In the paper, mechanisms and conditions are reported for the development and implementation of waste management options in embedded industrial production systems. The focus is on the Dutch zinc production industry, which had to deal with a major waste problem; the generation of jarosite. The industry's options were to increase the jarosite waste storage capacity, to develop a jarosite treatment process or to switch to a zinc-ore of low-iron content whereby no jarosite waste would be generated anymore. Required conditions appeared to be a combination of technological capability and technical embedding and favourable economics. Case study research, however, revealed that adequate stakeholder management is crucial to address social pressure exerted and to obtain external acceptance for any transition strategy. Whilst appropriate, internal technological capabilities are important, effective interactions with and enrolment of various firm-external actors are crucial. In the case of zinc, access to the heterogeneous external actor network was critical for the development of the jarosite treatment solution direction. In conclusion, both the technical, organizational and social embedding of new technologies are crucial for successful implementation.     

国际证券市场联动程度的实证分析

20世纪80年代以来,通过国际证券投资分散风险已经形成一种可行手段,然而,随着全球经济一体化趋势的强化,国际证券市场也正在经历着一体化趋势,证券市场联动关系越来越明显,这必然会使国际投资多样化空间变小,进而会侵蚀掉国际多样化投资收益.有鉴于此,本文使用协相关参数分析、平稳性检验、多元协整检验、协整向量参数零配载限制检验、基于VECM的Granger因果性检验等计量技术测度国际证券市场联动程度,为国际证券投资提供量化参考.     

信息不对称资本市场的实验研究

我们采用经济学实验研究方法构建了信息不对称的实验室资本市场,研究信息是否可以通过市场迅速传递。实验结果表明,在信息不对称的情况下,资本市场是非有效的;市场对信息的传递和价格反应是有条件的而且也是需要时间的;资本市场中的投资者并非完全理性,而是具有认知和行为偏差的普通人,存在过度自信和过度交易的情况;信息不对称还可能引起市场操纵行为,从而导致价格泡沫的形成。     

How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

The finance literature provides ample evidence that diversification benefits hinges on dependence between assets returns. A notable feature of the recent financial crisis is the extent to which assets that had hitherto moved mostly independently suddenly moved together resulting in joint losses in most advanced markets. This provides grounds to uncover the relative potential of African markets to provide diversification benefits by means of their correlation with advanced markets. Therefore, we examine the dependence structure between advanced and emerging African stock markets using copulas. Several findings are documented. First, dependence is time-varying and weak for most African markets, except South Africa. Second, we find evidence of asymmetric dependence, suggesting that stock return comovement varies in bearish and bullish markets. Third, extreme downward stock price movements in the advanced markets do not have significant spillover effects on Africa’s emerging stock markets. Our results, implying that African markets, with the exception of South Africa, are immune to risk spillover from advanced markets, improves the extant literature and have implications for portfolio diversification and risk management.     

Corporate Name Change and the Market Valuation of Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Investors’ responses to a firm’s name change and the determinants of their response are scantly explored areas in the field of behavioral finance. Based on a sample of 415 Indian firms from 2005 to 2014, this study suggests that investors respond positively to the announcement of firm name changes. Furthermore, the study indicates that when firms do not indicate geographical specificity in the name and have a specific rather than generic name, then the firm will experience greater abnormal returns. Also, when firm names are fluent and are associated with the owner’s family name, again, abnormal returns generated are positive. Nevertheless, as a firm ages and investors gain more information about it, then abnormal returns due to name change decrease.     

Can governance help in making an IPO “successful”? New evidence from Europe

This paper investigates the determinants of a “successful” IPO from a corporate governance perspective upon a representative sample of European listings from 2000 to 2015. We use an extensive dataset of market performance, financial data, and corporate governance characteristics to run the investigation. Differently from previous studies, our analysis embraces both a short‐term perspective and a medium–long‐term perspective, where the board of directors seems to perform different tasks, moving from a value creation to a value protection strategy. Among the others, we find that board size, board independence, and their qualifications, together with their experience in other boards, are associated with a positive performance of the IPO in a short‐term horizon and in the medium–long‐term period, although significant differences emerge among those time perspectives.     

Relationship between city size and firm productivity – A new interpretation using the Chinese experience

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between city size and firm productivity by focusing on agglomeration, selection (market competition), and sorting (presence of firms with diverse productivity) effects using Chinese firm-level data for 1998–2013. Contrary to the existing literature, our parametric regression estimates from nearly two million firms show that when the selection effect is controlled, productivity advantage in big cities is reversed. This outcome is explained through a quantile regression showing the existence of left-sided sorting (inefficient firms sort themselves to larger cities) in big cities which is not captured in existing empirical literature. We further find that (1) left-sided sorting is stronger in exporters than non-exporters; (2) is also generated mainly in enterprises with high asset-liability ratios; and (3) selection has a positive effect on firm productivity, suggesting that market competition is key in an explanation of the rapid growth of big cities in China.     

全球股票市场间风险传染的测度、监管及预警

近年来,伴随金融一体化程度的加深,全球各股票市场间风险传染的动态复杂性加剧,其准确测度、高效监管及实时预警已成为优先事项。本研究选取全球21个代表性股票市场作为分析样本,首先基于广义向量自回归模型的滚动估计准确测度其间风险动态传染的高维网络序列,进一步借由矩阵值因子模型来稳健收缩上述序列,以探究其潜在动态核心结构,从而实现高效监管。最后,通过向量自回归模型的预测功能实现对全球股票市场间风险传染的实时预警。研究表明,全球股票市场间风险传染具有时变性,其监管与预警可通过少数与地理区域高度相关的风险区域间的动态传染关系及内部的市场构成来刻画。与此同时,我们发现中国内地等新兴市场的重要地位逐渐凸显。本文研究结论可为有效防范与化解金融风险提供有益参考。     

Land-property markets and planning: A special case

Land use policy often intervenes in land-property markets. This raises a question that may have critical implications for land use policy: are these normal markets? This paper addresses that question: are land and property ordinary market goods, or do they lack some of the preconditions necessary for markets to work properly? We find that land-property has limited substitutability, due to the critical factor of location; qualified by location, land is limited and sometimes unique. These attributes make land and property investment assets risking speculation, warranting public intervention to mitigate negative social consequences. Land-property markets need market or administrative support to work, which planning provides through public and private agents. The paper reviews the different forms of planning and development control in land-property markets.